Saadaasha Qiimaha Lithium: qiimuhu ma sii wadi doonaa dibigiisa?

Saadaasha qiimaha lithium: qiimuhu ma sii wadi doonaa dibigiisa?

Qiimaha lithium-ka ee heerka batteriga wuu yaraaday toddobaadyadii la soo dhaafay in kasta oo sahaydu gabaabsi joogto ah iyo iibka baabuurta korantada ee caalamiga ah.

Qiimaha toddobaadlaha ee lithium hydroxide (ugu yaraan 56.5% heerka batteriga LiOH2O) celcelis ahaan $75,000 halkii ton ($75 kiiloogaraam) kharashka, caymiska iyo xamuulka (CIF) 7dii Luulyo, oo hoos uga dhacay $81,500 7dii Maajo, sida laga soo xigtay London Metal Sarrifka (LME) iyo wakaalada warbixinta qiimaha Fastmarkets.

Qiimaha karbohaydraytyada lithium ee Shiinaha ayaa dib ugu noqday CNY475,500/ton ($70,905.61) dabayaaqadii Juunyo, laga soo bilaabo rikoodhkii ugu sarreeyay ee CNY500,000 bishii Maarso, sida laga soo xigtay bixiyaha xogta dhaqaalaha Trading Economics.

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, qiimaha lithium carbonate iyo lithium hydroxide - alaabta ceeriin ee samaynta baytariyada baabuurta korantada (EV) - ayaa weli labanlaab ka ah qiimaha horaanta Janaayo.

Hoos-u-dhaca ma yahay indho-beel ku-meel-gaar ah?Maqaalkan waxaan ku baaraynaa wararkii ugu dambeeyay suuqa iyo xogta dalabaadka saadka ee qaabeeya saadaasha qiimaha lithium.

dulmar suuqa Lithium

Lithium ma laha suuq mustaqbal maadaama ay tahay suuq bir ah oo aad u yar marka loo eego mugga ganacsiga.Si kastaba ha noqotee, meelaha suuqa kala soocida ee CME Group waxay leedahay mustaqbalka lithium hydroxide, kuwaas oo adeegsada qiimeynta qiimaha lithium hydroxide ee ay daabacday Fastmarkets.

Sannadka 2019, LME oo ay iskaashanayaan Fastmarkets waxay bilaabeen qiime tixraac ah oo ku saleysan tusmada ganacsiga booska toddobaadlaha ah ee ku saleysan CIF Shiinaha, Japan iyo Kuuriya.

Shiinaha, Japan iyo Kuuriya waa saddexda suuq ee ugu weyn ee loo yaqaan 'lithium-ka' badda.Qiimaha booska lithium-ka ee wadamadaas waxaa loo arkaa bartilmaameedka warshadaha ee heerka lithium-ka.

Marka loo eego xogta taariikhiga ah, qiimaha lithiumku wuxuu hoos u dhacay intii u dhaxaysay 2018 ilaa 2020 sababtoo ah sahayda glut sida macdanta macdanta, sida Pilbara Minerals iyo Altura Mining, ayaa kordhay wax soo saarka.

Qiimaha lithium hydroxide waxa uu hoos ugu dhacay $9 kiilogaraam 30ka Diseembar 2020, laga bilaabo $20.5/kg 4tii Janaayo 2018. Lithium carbonate waxa lagu kala iibiyay $6.75/kg 30kii Diseembar 2020, oo hoos uga dhacay $19.25 4tii Janaayo 2018.

Qiimayaashu waxay bilaabeen inay kor u kacaan horraantii 2021 sababtoo ah kobaca EV ee xooggan iyadoo dhaqaalaha adduunku uu ka soo kabtay saameynta masiibada Covid-19.Qiimaha karbohaydraytku wuxuu kor u kacay sagaal laab ilaa maanta laga soo bilaabo $6.75/kg horraantii Jannaayo 2021, halka lithium hydroxide uu ka kordhay in ka badan toddobo laab laga soo bilaabo $9.

GudahaMuuqaalka Caalamiga ah ee EV 2022la daabacay May, Wakaaladda Tamarta Caalamiga ah (IEA)

iibka la sheegay ee EVs wuu labanlaabmay 2021 marka loo eego sanadkii hore ilaa rikoor cusub oo ah 6.6m unug.Wadarta guud ee baabuurta korontada ku shaqeysa ee waddooyinka adduunka ayaa gaartay 16.5m, taasoo saddex jibaarantay cadadka sanadka 2018-ka.

Saddexdii bilood ee ugu horreeyay sanadkan, 2 milyan oo baabuur EV ah ayaa la iibiyay, taasoo kor u kacday 75% sannadkiiba (YOY).

Si kastaba ha noqotee, qiimaha lithium carbonate ee suuqa Aasiya-Pacific ayaa fududeeyay rubuci labaad iyadoo faafitaanka cusub ee Covid-19 ee Shiinaha, kaas oo ku kalifay dowladda inay soo rogto qufulo, saameeyay silsiladda sahayda alaabta ceeriin.

Marka loo eego suuqa kiimikada iyo sirdoonka qiimaha, Chemanalyst, qiimaha lithium carbonate waxaa lagu qiimeeyay $72,155/ton ama $72.15/kg rubuci labaad ee dhamaaday Juun 2022, oo hoos uga dhacay $74,750/ton rubuci hore wuxuu dhamaaday bishii Maarso.

Shirkaddu waxay qortay:

Dhowr xarumood oo Baabuurta Korontada ah ayaa hoos u dhigay wax soo saarkooda, waxaana goobo badan joojiyay wax soo saarkooda sababtoo ah sahayda qaybaha muhiimka ah ee baabuurta oo aan ku filnayn.

"Horumarka guud ee ka dhashay COVID, oo ay weheliso baaritaanka maamulka Shiinaha ee kor u kaca qiimaha Lithium, ayaa caqabad ku ah kala-guurka joogtada ah ee loo maro dhaqaale cagaaran,"

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, qiimaha lithium hydroxide ee Asia-Pacific, si kastaba ha ahaatee, wuxuu kacay $73,190/ton rubuci labaad, laga bilaabo $68,900/ton rubuci hore, ayuu yiri Chemanlyst.

Aragtida saadka-baahida waxay soo jeedinaysaa suuqa oo ciriiri ah

Bishii Maarso, dawladda Australiya waxay saadaalisay in baahida caalamiga ah ee lithium ay kor u kacdo 636,000 tan oo lithium carbonate u dhiganta (LCE) sanadka 2022, laga bilaabo 526,000 tan sanadka 2021. Baahida ayaa la filayaa inay ka badan labanlaabanto ilaa 1.5 milyan tan marka la gaaro 2027 sida caalamka oo dhan. ayaa sii kordheysa.

Waxay ku qiyaastay wax soo saarka lithium-ka caalamiga ah inuu wax yar ka sarreeyo baahida 650,000 tan LCE sanadka 2022 iyo 1.47 milyan oo tan sanadka 2027.

Korodhka soosaarka lithium-ka, si kastaba ha ahaatee, waxa laga yaabaa in aanu awoodin in uu la qabsado baahida soo saarayaasha batteriga.

Shirkadda cilmi-baarista Wood Mackenzie waxay saadaalisay bishii Maarso in awoodda batteriga lithium-ion ee caalamiga ah ay kor u kacdo in ka badan shan laab ilaa 5,500 gigawatt-saac (GWh) marka la gaaro 2030 laga bilaabo 2021 si looga jawaabo qorshayaasha ballaarinta ee EV.

Jiayue Zheng, falanqeeyayaasha Wood Mackenzie, ayaa yidhi:

"Baabuurka korantada (EV) suuqa ayaa ku dhawaad ​​80% ka ah baahida batteriga lithium-ion."

"Qiimaha saliidda sare ayaa taageeraya suuqyo badan si ay u soo saaraan siyaasadaha gaadiidka eber-soo-saarka, taasoo keeneysa baahida bateriga lithium-ion inuu cirka isku shareero oo uu dhaafo 3,000 GWh marka la gaaro 2030."

"Suuqa baytariyada lithium-ion ayaa horeyba u la kulmay gabaabsi sanadkii hore taasoo ay ugu wacan tahay baahida suuqa ee EV oo kobcaysa iyo qiimaha alaabta ceeriin oo kor u kacay.Marka la eego xaaladdayada aasaasiga ah, waxaan qorsheyneynaa in sahayda batarigu aanu buuxin doonin baahida ilaa 2023."

"Suuqa baytariyada lithium-ion ayaa horeyba u la kulmay gabaabsi sanadkii hore taasoo ay ugu wacan tahay baahida suuqa ee EV oo kobcaysa iyo qiimaha alaabta ceeriin oo kor u kacay.Marka la eego xaaladdayada aasaasiga ah, waxaan qorsheyneynaa in sahayda batarigu aanu buuxin doonin baahida ilaa 2023."

"Waxaan aaminsanahay in diiradda la saarayo lithium-ka ay inta badan sabab u tahay qaybta macdanta lithium-ka oo aan horumarin marka loo eego nikkel," shirkaddu waxay ku qortay cilmi-baarista.

"Waxaan ku qiyaaseynaa in EVs ay mas'uul ka noqon doonaan in ka badan 80.0% baahida lithium-ka caalamiga ah marka la gaaro 2030 marka la barbar dhigo 19.3% kaliya ee saadka nikelka caalamiga ah 2030."

Saadaasha qiimaha lithium: saadaasha falanqeeyayaasha

Fitch Solutions ee saadaasha qiimaha lithium-ka ee 2022 lagu qiyaasay qiimaha lithium carbonate ee heerka batteriga ee Shiinaha ilaa celcelis ahaan $21,000 halkii ton sanadkan, taasoo fududaynaysa celcelis ahaan $19,000 halkii ton sanadka 2023.

Nicholas Trickett, Falanqeeyaha birta iyo macdanta ee Fitch Solutions ayaa u qoray Capital.com, wuxuu yiri:

"Waxaan wali filaynaa in hoos loo dhigo qiimaha marka la eego sanadka soo socda iyadoo miinooyinka cusub ay bilaabayaan wax soo saarka 2022 iyo 2023, qiimaha sare ee joogtada ah ayaa baabi'iya baahida qaar ka mid ah macaamiisha ayaa lagu qiimeeyaa iibsashada baabuurta korontada (dareewalka koowaad ee kobaca baahida), iyo macaamiil badan. xidhitaan heshiisyada fogaynta muddada-dheer ee macdan qodayaasha.

Shirkaddu waxay ku guda jirtay cusboonaysiinta saadaasha qiimaha lithium marka la eego qiimaha sare ee hadda jira iyo isbeddelada xaaladda dhaqaale, ayuu yidhi Trickett.

Fitch Solutions waxa ay saadaalisay sahayda kaarboont-ka ee lithium-ka caalamiga ah in ay ku korodho 219kilotonnes (kt) inta u dhaxaysa 2022 iyo 2023 iyo korodh kale oo ah 194.4 kt inta u dhaxaysa 2023 iyo 2024, Trickett ayaa yidhi.

Saadaasha qiimaha lithium ee 2022 ee bixiyaha xogta dhaqaalaha Ganacsiga Dhaqaalaha la filayo lithium carbonate ee Shiinaha inuu ka ganacsado CNY482,204.55/ton dhamaadka Q3 2022 iyo CNY502,888.80 gudaha 12 bilood.

Sababtoo ah isbedbedelka iyo hubin la'aanta saadka iyo baahida, falanqeeyayaasha ayaa kaliya bixin kara saadaasha muddada gaaban.Ma aysan bixin saadaasha qiimaha lithium ee 2025 ama saadaasha qiimaha lithium ee 2030.

Marka la eegolithiumSaadaasha qiimaha, maskaxda ku hay in saadaasha falanqeeyayaasha ay noqon karto oo ay khalad ahayd.Haddii aad jeclaan lahayd inaad maal gashato lithium, waa inaad marka hore samayso cilmi-baadhis adiga kuu gaar ah.

Go'aanka maalgashigaagu waa inuu ku salaysan yahay dabeecadaada khatarta ah, khibradaada suuqan, faafinta faylalkaaga iyo sida aad ugu qanacsan tahay inaad lumiso lacag.Weligaa ha gelin wax ka badan intaad awoodid inaad lumiso.